The country is barreling towards the Summer months and sports television executives are hoping for a big weekend in the ratings. The NFL Draft and Kentucky Derby, happening this weekend, are traditionally two of the highest-rated events on the sports calendar this time of year.
Last year’s NFL Draft brought in a record audience of 8.4 million average viewers as the only game in town during the early days of the pandemic. On the other hand, the Kentucky Derby averaged 9.26 million viewers after being forced to run in the Fall, its lowest total since 2000.
The Athletic talked to Jon Lewis of Sports Media Watch regarding his thoughts on how viewership will shake out this time around. The longtime sports media evaluator predicted the NFL Draft’s opening round would average between 10-11 million viewers. All while he pegged the Kentucky Derby at 12-13 million average viewers. The opening round of the 2020 draft averaged 15.26 million viewers, a record for the event.
“Last year it was the lack of competition,” Lewis said regarding the record NFL draft viewership in 2020. “This year, they’re not going to have that advantage. There’s no way to replicate last year’s circumstances.”
Lewis doesn’t expect a huge increase to pre-pandemic Kentucky Derby levels because fans are likely fatigued from the race running eight months ago. On top of that, there isn’t much excitement surrounding the favored horses. 2020 was the first year the Kentucky Derby sank below 15 million average viewers since 2012.
“No one wants to watch these things in such a short period,” Lewis said to The Athletic. “There’s not a lot of hype for it.”
The Kentucky Derby and plenty of other major sports have suffered big hits to their ratings. Yet Lewis believes the NFL has weathered this storm the best.
“Ultimately, everything on TV has been in decline, but the NFL is in the least decline.”